Séminaire BioGeCo Cuauhtémoc SAENZ ROMERO (Universidad Michoacana De San Nicolas De Hidalgo)03/04 : 11h
Le vendredi 3 avril à 11h, Cuauhtémoc SAENZ ROMERO fera un séminare
"Conservation of Abies religiosa (sacred fir) forest at the Mexican
Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve. How to accommodate climatic change?"
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Publié le mercredi 01 avril 2015
A bioclimate model predicting the presence of Abies religiosa, host for
overwintering Monarch butterfly migratory populations inside the Mexican
Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR), was developed for
contemporary and future climates (years 2030, 2060 and 2090). Results
suggest that the area occupied by the A. religiosa niche should diminish
69 % by 2030, 94 % for 2060, and 97 % for 2090, and suitable habitat may
no longer occur inside the MBBR by 2090. That would induce a severe
forest declination that likely will decimate the unique winter refuge
for Canadian and USA migratory Monarch butterfly populations. Signs of
forest decline are being observed already. We suggest conducting
assisted migration of A. religiosa, shifting altitudinal upwards at
least 275 m to match climate predicted for 2030, and establishing A.
religiosa new populations outside the MBBR, using Lupinus sp. as nurse
plants to protect the seedlings against frost damage.