Séminaire BioGeCo Cuauhtémoc SAENZ ROMERO (Universidad Michoacana De San Nicolas De Hidalgo)le 03/04 à 11h
Le vendredi 3 avril à 11h, Cuauhtémoc SAENZ ROMERO fera un séminare intitulé : "Conservation of Abies religiosa (sacred fir) forest at the Mexican Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve. How to accommodate climatic change?"
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Dernière mise à jour mercredi 01 avril 2015
Resumé : A bioclimate model predicting the presence of Abies religiosa, host for overwintering Monarch butterfly migratory populations inside the Mexican Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR), was developed for contemporary and future climates (years 2030, 2060 and 2090). Results suggest that the area occupied by the A. religiosa niche should diminish 69 % by 2030, 94 % for 2060, and 97 % for 2090, and suitable habitat may no longer occur inside the MBBR by 2090. That would induce a severe forest declination that likely will decimate the unique winter refuge for Canadian and USA migratory Monarch butterfly populations. Signs of forest decline are being observed already. We suggest conducting assisted migration of A. religiosa, shifting altitudinal upwards at least 275 m to match climate predicted for 2030, and establishing A. religiosa new populations outside the MBBR, using Lupinus sp. as nurse plants to protect the seedlings against frost damage.
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