DEcadal prediction for detecting trends in Forest mortality and grapevIne productivity (UMR EPOC / UMR EGFV / UMR BIOGECO in partnership with CERGACS and Inra Avignon)
While forestry and viticulture could be at threat within on-going climate change, the potential impact of near-term (decadal) climate variations on these activities has not been analysed yet. Indeed, decadal prediction of climate is an emerging field from climate science, based on the simple idea that initialising the oceanic component of climate models using oceanic observations can allow to improve predictability of climate, through the inertia of large-scale oceanic currents and their impact on climate. It is especially key in the North Atlantic regions, where large cooling (1960s) or warming (1990s) of sea surface temperature have been observed in the past, with clear link with the climate of the bordering regions like France. While the large-scale ocean circulation has been decreasing over the last 10 years, evaluation of its near-term variations necessitates to start a climate model from observed oceanic state. This is what is done in decadal climate prediction from IPSL-EPOC system, which is also providing case studies for past events called hindcasts.
The aim of the present project is to couple the products of decadal climate predictions and statistical downscaling techniques with physiological model of forestry and viticulture, to estimate the potential impact of near-term climate change on the productivity and potential threats within the region of Bordeaux. The use of past decades as case tests will allow to provide an estimate of the skill of decadal prediction to anticipate impact of climatic fluctuations. To achieve such a project, a multidisciplinary team from Labex COTE, but also including expertise from other laboratories in France will collaborate to tackle this complex subject and provide a precise risk assessment concerning tree mortality from possible heat waves, or on the opposite tardive chill for viticulture, depending on the climatic predictions related with oceanic changes in the coming decades.